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Kolskuld.

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Hur har det gått historiskt? Över tiden har människan avlägsnat ungefär hälften av alla skogar och växtlighet på jorden för att bereda plats åt jordbruk och bebyggelse (Smil2011). En stor del av det kolet som fanns i träden och växterna finns i atmosfären men det finns en del på havsbottnen också. För Europas del har Naudts med flera uppskattat att det finns en kolskuld på 3 petagram (se ruta). Däremot finns det andra rapporter som hävdar att det inte finns någon kolskuld alls, t ex från Nabuurs (2017). Båda har rätt.
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Medan koldioxid brukar räknas i megaton (1 million x 1000 kg, eller 1 miljard kg) beskrivs mängden ren kol ofta i petagram (10¹⁵ gram, eller 10⁹ ton). 1 petagram kol motsvarar då 3667 megaton koldioxid.

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För att förstå varför det finns så olika uppskattningar har Bentsen (2017) jämfört dessa och många fler studier. Han gjorde det genom att objektivt undersöka de faktorer som bidragit till slutsatsen (se länk). Det visade sig att antaganden i modellen förklarade skillnaden i utfall för ⅔ del. Andra faktorer ligger i substitutionseffekten: ersätter man fossilt kol med bioenergi blir återbetalningstiden kortare än när man ersätter fossilt gas, till exempel. Det kanske viktigaste av allt är utgångspunkten (baseline på Engelska). Naudts m. fl. tar ostörd skog som referens och räknar fram hur mycket kol som skulle kunna lagras in i teori. Nabuurs m. fl. avfärdar detta som orealistiskt och bara jämför dagens uttag av biobränslen med ökat uttag. I och med detta bortser de från den historiska kolskulden.
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[av_image src=’https://klimatetochskogen.nu/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/skytt-fig1-300×180.png’ attachment=’4138′ attachment_size=’medium’ copyright=” caption=” image_size=” styling=” box_shadow=’none’ box_shadow_width=’10’ box_shadow_color=” align=’center’ font_size=” overlay_opacity=’0.4′ overlay_color=’#000000′ overlay_text_color=’#ffffff’ animation=’no-animation’ animation_duration=” animation_custom_bg_color=” animation_z_index_curtain=’100′ parallax_parallax=” parallax_parallax_speed=” av-desktop-parallax_parallax=” av-desktop-parallax_parallax_speed=” av-medium-parallax_parallax=” av-medium-parallax_parallax_speed=” av-small-parallax_parallax=” av-small-parallax_parallax_speed=” av-mini-parallax_parallax=” av-mini-parallax_parallax_speed=” hover=” blur_image=” grayscale_image=” fade_image=” appearance=” css_position=” css_position_location=’,,,’ css_position_z_index=” av-desktop-css_position=” av-desktop-css_position_location=’,,,’ av-desktop-css_position_z_index=” av-medium-css_position=” av-medium-css_position_location=’,,,’ av-medium-css_position_z_index=” av-small-css_position=” av-small-css_position_location=’,,,’ av-small-css_position_z_index=” av-mini-css_position=” av-mini-css_position_location=’,,,’ av-mini-css_position_z_index=” transform_perspective=” transform_rotation=’,,,’ transform_scale=’,,’ transform_skew=’,’ transform_translate=’,,’ av-desktop-transform_perspective=” av-desktop-transform_rotation=’,,,’ av-desktop-transform_scale=’,,’ av-desktop-transform_skew=’,’ av-desktop-transform_translate=’,,’ av-medium-transform_perspective=” av-medium-transform_rotation=’,,,’ av-medium-transform_scale=’,,’ av-medium-transform_skew=’,’ av-medium-transform_translate=’,,’ av-small-transform_perspective=” av-small-transform_rotation=’,,,’ av-small-transform_scale=’,,’ av-small-transform_skew=’,’ av-small-transform_translate=’,,’ av-mini-transform_perspective=” av-mini-transform_rotation=’,,,’ av-mini-transform_scale=’,,’ av-mini-transform_skew=’,’ av-mini-transform_translate=’,,’ mask_overlay=” mask_overlay_shape=’blob’ mask_overlay_size=’contain’ mask_overlay_scale=’100%’ mask_overlay_position=’center center’ mask_overlay_repeat=’no-repeat’ mask_overlay_rotate=” mask_overlay_rad_shape=’circle’ mask_overlay_rad_position=’center center’ mask_overlay_opacity1=’0′ mask_overlay_opacity2=’1′ mask_overlay_opacity3=” link=” target=” title_attr=” alt_attr=” img_scrset=” lazy_loading=’disabled’ id=” custom_class=” template_class=” av_element_hidden_in_editor=’0′ av_uid=’av-le7n6bii’ sc_version=’1.0′ admin_preview_bg=”]
Schema för att beräkna kolbalansen med olika nivåer på avverkning och substitution i Skytt et al. (2021).
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Schema över beräkningssättet som Skytt et al. (2021) använt i sin studie.
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